Rates of knife crime, violence against women, and theft could rise in London without more government funding, the Metropolitan Police commissioner has warned.
In a report, due to be presented by Sir Mark Rowley to the London Policing Board this week, he says the force "must be honest to Londoners that in light of the budget, we are shrinking as an organisation".
The commissioner acknowledges that extra funding from the Home Office and City Hall means the Met's final settlement is "nearly £100m better" than it feared in November 2024, when he warned of a £450m funding gap and "eye-watering cuts" to services.
The Home Office has been asked to comment.
Sir Mark says unless the Met receives more money in June's spending review, the government risks being unable to meet its own national promises to halve knife crime, and violence against women and girls, over the next decade.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper told BBC London last week that a review of the Met's finances is currently under way, alongside the mayor and Scotland Yard.
The commissioner's report states the force wants to grow in size to 38,000 officers and 19,000 staff, but is forecast to have just 31,248 officers and 10,972 staff by the end of the year.
He predicts the Met will lose about 1,700 officers, PCSOs and staff, but that additional funding may allow the force to reduce the losses by speeding up recruitment.
'Less capacity, increasing demand'
The report warns that with no additional investment, London may experience "sustained increases" in knife crime, violence against women and girls (VAWG), and theft.
"We will have less policing capacity and capability at a time when demand has been steadily increasing," the commissioner writes.
"Undoubtedly this will impact our ability to respond to victims of crime and Londoners and have consequences for our own officers and staff and our reform plans."
Earlier this month, the Met detailed a list of savings it would need to make in order to protect frontline services such as neighbourhood policing and public protection teams, which tackle sex offences and domestic abuse.
Those plans include scrapping the Royal Parks police and Safer Schools officers, along with cuts to forensics and mounted police, and potentially taking firearms off the Flying Squad.
Sir Mark's report warns the financial challenges are likely to have a "negative impact on the speed and scale" of reforms, which the force is under pressure to make following a series of scandals and a highly critical review two years ago by Baroness Casey.
